How To Trade Price Compression and Make Fast Gains

Hello, new traders. Here are a few words from my four and a half years of experience.

Hey! I’m a full time currency and cryptocurrency trader, I need to point out a few major fallacies and misconceptions I frequently see in this community and others.
First up. If it’s your first year trading expect to fail. Actually, if there was a contract I could buy that’d pay me out if you ended up liquidating your account in the next 12 months, I’d literally bet on your failure. You need to immediately reduce your trading account to 1/10th of its original size for your first year of trading. Seriously, do it. You are betting that you can outperform billions of dollars of institutional order flow, typically with basic patterns or default setting indicators with no experience. Which brings me to my next point.
Your strategy is not your identity, stop treating what you use to trade as dogma. That indicator or pattern you’re using, can you tell me why it works? Not HOW to use it, but what fundamental paradigm it uses to accurately predict future price action. There are legitimate answers, but trying to use your indicators/patterns without understanding why is like driving across the country without knowing how to open or what’s inside the hood or your car. Sure, you’re going to get pretty far, but eventually it’ll break down and you won’t have a clue what to do, stranded and starving in the middle of the desert.
Chances are, while you were reading this you came up with one of three answers in your head as to why your indicatopattern works. Let me guess. “Everyone else uses it, it’s made me money so far, it’s natures law (for you Fibonacci folks,) or it’s a proven standard.” All of those are appeal to authority fallacies. For instance....
How does a compass work? Are the answers “well everybody else uses compasses” or “compasses are a proven standard” WHY a compass works? If you don’t know how a compass works and you’re lost, you aren’t going to know what variables will stop the compass from working. You might be in the Southern Hemisphere, that’d lead you in the exact opposite direction, but you wouldn’t know it because you DON’T KNOW WHY it works. Then die of starvation shortly after because you didn’t understand a tool paramount to your survival and couldn’t find your way back to civilization. If you’re lost in the ocean of institutional investors, AT LEAST understand why your tools work.
For instance, why does divergence work? You probably know that divergence represents a reversal.
Divergence doesn’t form because of “price” or “its losing momentum,” divergence forms because an oscillator defines a data set that expands and contracts based on the activity in the period lookback you define for it. When you have an expanding data set, it requires increasingly drastic moves to register the same “extreme” values. If you have a tight data set and you have a huge outlier, the data set widens to compensate with every candle close. So now that you have a wider data set, an equal move would register as a less extreme event as defined by the oscillator. That’s why divergence forms/works.
Seriously, it’s worth learning these things. Unless you can explain why something works like I just did with divergence you shouldn’t EVER use it in your arsenal. Then if you do take the time to learn the “why,” you’ll start realizing that a lot of the commonly accepted tools are fundamentally broken. For instance, with your new understanding of divergence, think about overbought or oversold signals. Why would a new outlier of a data set imply a return to the center of the data set if the data set is in an active state of expansion, CAUSED by the outlier?
Now if you’re relying on an appeal to authority fallacy for understanding, could it be that the authority that presented the information doesn’t have your best interest at heart? Breakout patterns for example. If you have a bull flag, and you’re betting on bullish trend continuation, I’ll take a wild guess about where you put your stop loss. Oh, below the bull flag? Large players know this and will scoop up your stops before pushing price up. How often have you said, “wow, I was right but I stopped out just before trend continuation!” The “golden standard” of technical analysis is only so to make the masses of retail traders a predictable herd of cattle.
Also, stay away from entirely subjective strategies that will always appear correct in hindsight. Oh, how many times have you redrawn that Elliot wave extension to match what happened instead of what you predicted? Don’t you dare bring up the Fibonacci to justify your subjective drawings either. Fibonacci doesn’t work because “it’s natures law” or the “golden rule,” it just happens to be very similar to the first standard deviation of any price move. So why are you using a static reading to predict a dynamic value that changes with every candle close?
For TA that actually works (if you use it correctly,) I can recommend ichimoku, though only on macro timeframes and requires a lot of reading to use properly.
Mark Whistler’s books on volatility are my biggest recommendation to learn. Any strategy using WAVE PM and 3D WAVE PM are ideal, treating price strictly as reactionary, multiperiod probability distributions gives an excellent “why” in the chaos of the markets. The compression and expansion cycles can be defined to the exact period on any timeframe with the right readings. I created a write up a while back going in depth on my findings on probability distributions here. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ah5bxo/lets_talk_about_the_basics_of_advanced_volatility/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app
I also created a google doc over the years and filled it with a few resources I’ve used to learn, I can hand it out if you dm me.
Finally, don’t forget to do your FA. Macro level economic indications are incredibly important for defining the long term alignment of expectations. However never trade the news, this is an important distinction. Don’t bet that the US dollar will go down because Trump made a stupid tweet, please. What you SHOULD do is measure the strength of the move and the EXPANSION caused by the FA and identify where the compression begins afterwards. For every period of expansion, there is a predictable compressionary range that follows that is equal to the expansion. For every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction. Instead of betting on the news, bet on the reaction after the news has cooled off.
That’s all that immediately comes to mind. Feel free to ask any questions.
submitted by FallacyDog to Forex [link] [comments]

Some news you may have missed out on part 61.

-Karachi is Planning to Restart Tram Services
Sindh Government is planning to restore the glory of old Karachi area and is planning to rebuild tram services. For the construction and operations of tram service, the provincial government is looking to acquire services of Austrian experts. The Sindh Chief Minister, Murad Ali Shah, met with the Pakistani ambassador posted in Vienna, Mansoor Ahmed Khan, at CM House Karachi. In the meeting, both discussed ways to improve relations with the Austrian government in the field of technical education, renewable hydropower and city planning for Karachi.
-Pakistan’s logistics market reaches $34.2bln
Pakistan’s logistics market has reached $34.2 billion with annual growth of 18 percent, a minister said on Saturday, while unveiling a plan for state-owned postal operator to enter into ecommerce business. Minister for Postal Services Murad Saeed said future initiatives of Pakistan Post would be compatible with the contemporary needs of existing times.
“This would include an entry into the ecommerce business,” Saeed said at a meeting. The minister announced a pilot project for microfinance loan disbursement of Khushhali Bank through Pakistan Post. The project will be piloted by the first week of January and will formally be inaugurated by the mid of January.
-Pakistan Army inducts indigenous built Multiple Launch Rocket system in Artillery Corps
As per the media report, Pakistan Army has inducted A-100 rocket in Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) of its Corps of Artillery. Media wing of the armed forces, the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said A-100 rocket had been indigenously developed by Pakistani scientists and engineers. “With over 100 kilometers range the Rocket is a highly effective and potent for interdiction that can effectively disrupt enemy’s mobilization and assembly,” said the ISPR.
-$15 billion investment package likely from UAE including mega oil refinery in Pakistan
Pakistan is likely to get $ 10 -15 billion investment package from UAE , likely to be announced during the visit of Crown Prince, sources said. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan is expected to announce the facility for Pakistan during his visit to the country starting January 6. The sources added that Pakistan, in collaboration with the UAE , is also starting construction of Parco Coastal Refinery in Balochistan worth over $5 billion.
-Abu Dhabi crown prince to arrive in Pakistan on January 6
Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on January 6, Express News reported.
Sheikh Mohammad, who is also Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, had accepted an invitation to visit the country extended by Prime Minister Imran Khan in a telephonic conversation last year. Sources the crown prince will be accompanied by a high-level delegation. He is expected to announce investments in Pakistan.
-Currency dealers offer to bring $1b a month
Currency dealers have brought $13 billion in Pakistan in the past eight years, including $1 billion since August 2018, to stabilise the country’s foreign currency reserves, the dealers claim. “Dealers contribute $200-300 million a month to the country’s reserves through commercial banks,” said Pakistan Forex Association President Malik Bostan while briefing Finance Minister Asad Umar.
“They (dealers) have the potential to bring up to $1 billion a month,” he told The Express Tribune after meeting the finance minister and Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) Director General Bashir Memon in Islamabad recently. A delegation of currency dealers, headed by Bostan, asked the minister that the government should offer Rs2 per dollar in rebate to attract higher remittances from overseas Pakistanis. The incentive would help currency dealers to realise their true potential and contribute maximum dollars to the country’s foreign currency reserves, it said.
-Imran, Erdoğan discuss bilateral relations, regional issues in Turkey
Prime Minister Imran Khan on Friday held a one-to-one meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara during his two-day official visit to Turkey. Both the leaders discussed various issues including bilateral relations, national and international issues of mutual interests. A high-level delegation including Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Finance Minister Asad Umar, Planning Minister Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar, Adviser on Trade Abdul Razak Dawood and Special Assistant to PM Zulfikar Bukhari is accompanying the PM during his first tour to Turkey.
-TLP chief Khadim Rizvi remanded to police custody for another 20 days
An anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) in Punjab capital city has granted a 20-day physical remand of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) chief Khadim Hussain Rizvi and others. Civil Lines police officials, after producing Rizvi in court amid tight security, sought a 30-day remand of the firebrand cleric, Pir Afzal Qadri, Pir Ijaz Ashrafi, and Hafiz Farooqul Hassan.
-Pakistan prepares Terror Financing Risk Assessment Report for FATF crucial session
Pakistan has prepared Terror Financing Risk Assessment Report in line with the FATF conditions that would be scrutinized in face to face upcoming meeting of the FATF scheduled to be held next week at Sydney. “We will dispatch Terror Financing Risk Assessment Report to FATF on Friday (today) that basically identifies both domestic and foreign sources of funding being utilized for execution of terrorists’ activities,” confirmed by one top official.
-This city in Pakistan is going to use cow poo to power its buses
In a bid to freshen its air and cut planet-warming emissions, the Pakistani port city of Karachi will introduce cleaner-running buses powered by a decidedly "unclean" fuel: cow poo. With funding from the international Green Climate Fund, Karachi will launch a zero-emission Green Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network, with 200 buses fuelled by bio-methane. Locals said the new bus system - due to start operating in 2020 - would help reduce air pollution and street noise, but doubted whether it would have enough buses to resurrect the city's ailing transport system.
"(Karachi's) public transport system has totally collapsed and most people have to use online taxi-hailing services (and) auto rickshaws," said commuter Afzal Ahmed, 45, who works as a medical sales representative. After management problems forced the Karachi Transport Corporation to fold some two decades ago, Chinese-imported buses running on compressed natural gas fell into disrepair and were taken off the road, worsening public transport woes, he noted.
-KP announces development package for Buddhist sites in Mardan
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government has announced a development package for preserving and promoting the Buddhist relics at Takht Bahi, Jamal Garhi and Shehbaz Garhi.
Senior Minister for Culture, Tourism and Youth Affairs Atif Khan said this during his visit to Buddhist sites in Mardan on Thursday. “The K-P government will develop Buddhist sites at Takht Bahi, Jamal Garhi and Shehbaz Garhi as international tourism destinations,” he said announcing plans to construct chairlift to facilitate the tourists"
-PM Imran Khan approves Rs 50 billion package for Karachi
Sindh Governor Imran Ismail has said that Prime Minister Imran Khan has given approval of funds of 50 billion rupees for Karachi that would be utilized to resolve the long standing issues of the metropolis. He was talking to media in Karachi today (Friday) after attending the International Property Expo. The Governor said we intend to start work to improve the condition of roads in the city and to lift the garbage that has marred the beauty of the city for a long time now.
He said work would also start soon to lift the debris of encroachments that have been razed to the ground.Talking about the transport projects, the Governor said that the Green Line Bus Service will be fully functional within 4 to 6 months. He said that work on the project by the Federal Government has been completed. He said Sindh Government is carrying out its work while provision of buses for the project by Sindh Government is also awaited.
-KP government launched mega project in 25 Tehsils of tribal districts
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government launched a mega project of establishing new playgrounds and upgrading the existing ones in twenty-five different tribal tehsils. Secretary Sports Shahid Zaman said that administration is working on war footing on this project as directed by Prime Minister Imran Khan. He said besides constructing playing fields in tribal areas, it has also been decided to hold a grand tribal districts games event wherein 8 to 10 mostly popular games would be organized and players would be given kits and other facilities.
-Turkey hints at buying Military Aircrafts from Pakistan
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has hinted at buying Military trainer aircrafts from Pakistan.
-Pakistan becomes 5th largest Motorcycle producing country of the World
With 2.5 million units produced annually in Pakistan, country has become the fifth largest motorcycle producing country of the World.
-Huge weapons cache recovered by Security Forces in KP
Aurakzai Scouts on Friday during a raid at compound in Baghnak area of upper Tehsil of district Aurakzai seized a huge cache of arms and ammunition dumped underground, security sources said. The raid was conducted on tip off that huge quantity of arms and weapons have been dumped at foot-hills. The weapons included 14 hand grenades with 11 fuses, four mortar-shell, explosives and 478 cartridges of machine guns. The seized weapon was dumped for use in some subversive activities, the sources added.
-After British Air, Yet another leading Airline of the World wants to start flight operations from Pakistan: Report
German Ambassador has hinted that German Flag carrier and one of the leading Airline of the World Lufhtansa Air wants to start operations from Pakistan.
-$46 billion export target: Comprehensive strategic policy urged to boost exports
President Rawalpindi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (RCCI) Malik Shahid Saleem Friday called for formulating a comprehensive strategic policy to boost exports. He said business community was looking towards government’s concrete steps to ensure key macro indicators of the economy.
"We want more information and input on the Strategic Trade Policy Framework (STPF) 2018-23 with an aim to double the country’s exports to $46 billion in next five years," he added. In a statement, President RCCI said the government should evolve a comprehensive strategy in consultation with the private sector to increase exports .
-Gilgit Baltistan Tourism and Gems sector: PTI government takes important decisions
Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit Baltistan Ali Amin Gandapur says GB has world's best tourism attractions with beautiful waterfalls, lakes, meadows, deserts, and skiing resorts. In an exclusive interview with Radio Pakistan's Correspondent Ijaz Hussain, he said government is committed to develop the untapped tourism potential of Gilgit-Baltistan. The Minister said an MoU will soon be signed with leading international companies to develop eight lakes in the first phase
-ExxonMobil making $250 million investment in Pakistan: Razak Dawood
Adviser to Prime Minister on Commerce, Textile, Industry & Production and Investment Abdul Razak Dawood said Exxon Mobil was making an investment of $250 million in Pakistan. He said the company had re-entered Pakistan after a gap of almost three decades and setup its office in the country. Pakistan is requesting China to switch its investment focus from power & infrastructure to industrialization, agriculture and education in regard to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
-Weekly inflation decreases by 0.31pc
The inflation based on Sensitive Price Index (SPI) during the week ended on January 3, for the combined income group registered a decrease of 0.31pc as compared to the previous week.
The SPI for the week under review in the above-mentioned group was recorded at 237.85 points against 238.58 points registered in the previous week, according to the data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday.
-Chinese group to set up $70 million ceramics unit in Faisalabad
A prominent Chinese industrial group has decided to establish a ceramics unit in Pakistan with an investment of $70 million – a decision that is likely to lessen country’s reliance on imported tiles.
“The ceramics unit is expected to become operational by March 2020,” according to a senior official of the Faisalabad Industrial Estate Development and Management Company (FIEDMC). FIEDMC, located in the heart of Pakistan’s industrial hub, is rapidly transforming into an attractive destination for well-known foreign companies, which are planning to set up their units following lack of progress on the Special Economic Zones (SEZs), which are planned to be constructed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). “The Chinese industrial group already enjoys its presence in 50 countries,” said FIEDMC Chief Executive Officer Aamir Saleemi. “The group plans to import machinery from China and aims to complete work by March 2020.”
-Prime Minister Imran Khan invites Turkish investors to join CPEC
Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is on his first official two-day visit to Turkey, on Thursday said that it's time for Islamabad and Ankara to take their bilateral trade to a higher level, citing Pakistan’s ideal geo-strategic location and its huge potential for investment in infrastructure and tourism.
Addressing a business forum of the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) in Ankara on Thursday night, he said his government will provide all possible assistance and support to the Turkish investors in Pakistan, Khan said that Pakistan is a virgin territory as a lot of trade areas have not been exploited yet, adding that huge reserves of oil, gas, copper, coal and other admirals are yet to be unexplored. He said tremendous trade and economic activities will start due to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). He said special economic zones are being established through this mega project.
submitted by FashBasher1 to pakistan [link] [comments]

Dive Bar Pub Crawl - Second Six

I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk.
Our first six stops is fondly captured here.
All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell.
Many are companies I've never looked at before. In some cases, I'd never even heard of them. I limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept mainly to most recent financial statements and MD&A's. You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I saw in the financial statements.
LDS - Lifestyle Delivery Systems
Thing feels a like an ATM for management to me.
RTI - Radient Technologies
Of all I’ve looked at, I think this business model could work if they can wait until it actually generates revenue. Top heavy balance sheet needs concrete supports quick.
TNY - Tinley Beverage Company
All sparkles and rainbows and hope. The only question is if there will be anyone who wants to buy what they make. Feedstock not well defined. Scalability a real concern. Suspect they’ll need a shit ton of money if they actually try to. Feels like campers.
IMH - Invictus EDIT - Dec21 1100hrs Elves pulled a boner, covered wrong financial statements. Will be corrected after they come to later today. Replaced for now by......
iAn - Ianthus Capital Holdings
A business built on excel spreadsheets by bankers for bankers. So many contingencies to revenue combined with jurisdictional uncertainty, this is simply a hedge fund. Short and mid-term operational exposure is extreme.
CHV - Canada House Wellness Group Inc
I’m going to stop, because there’s many more to go, and there’s not much more to see here in terms of doing a high level look. This has been my favorite to do so far, because their disclosure is so good. I really like the idea of a focused, vertically integrated company too, but this company is a train wreck on paper. Whether this one can survive for another year…. EDIT UPDATE! Day after I posted this, CHV announced a $7MM convertible raise, spending 25% of it on paying debt and accounts payable. Expensive, and suggests ops aren't paying the bills. Not atypical in growth phases. Exceptionally good disclosure though. Of note, 60% of the stock is owned by only 2 investors and insiders.
LIB - Liberty Leaf Holdings
Doesn’t look bad on paper. I’d gauge the risk on whether or not production can come in on time, what the facility actually looks like, and if they can get product sold mucho pronto. CEO has no history of anything connected to cannabis, only equity structures. Despite financial ‘health’, high risk Dive Bar goodness. Speculative is an understatement for this one. If IR can specifically address those three top things accurately, it offers focused regional cannabis exposure. Problem with that is the supply bubble potential in BC though. If they were in Manitoba….
submitted by mollytime to TheCannalysts [link] [comments]

Using Python and Pandas to explore trader sentiment data

FXCM’s Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) focuses on buyers and sellers, comparing how many are active in the market and producing a ratio to indicate how traders are behaving in relation to a particular currency pair. A positive SSI ratio indicates more buyers are in the market than sellers, while a negative SSI ratio indicates that more sellers are in the market. FXCM’s sentiment data was designed around this index, providing 12 sentiment measurements per minute (click here for an overview of each measurement.)
The sample data is stored in a GNU compressed zip file on FXCM’s GitHub as https://sampledata.fxcorporate.com/sentiment/{instrument}.csv.gz. To download the file, we’ll use this URL, but change {instrument} to the instrument of our choice. For this example we’ll use EUUSD price.
import datetime import pandas as pd url = 'https://sampledata.fxcorporate.com/sentiment/EURUSD.csv.gz' data = pd.read_csv(url, compression='gzip', index_col='DateTime', parse_dates=True) """Convert data into GMT to match the price data we will download later""" import pytz data = data.tz_localize(pytz.timezone('US/Eastern')) data = data.tz_convert(pytz.timezone('GMT')) """Use pivot method to pivot Name rows into columns""" sentiment_pvt = data.tz_localize(None).pivot(columns='Name', values='Value') 
Now that we have downloaded sentiment data, it would be helpful to have the price data for the same instrument over the same period for analysis. Note the sentiment data is in 1-minute increments, so I will need to pull 1-minute EURUSD candles. We could pull this data into a DataFrame quickly and easily using fxcmpy, however the limit of the number of candles we can pull using fxcmpy is 10,000, which is fewer than the number of 1-minute candles in January 2018. Instead, we can download the candles in 1-week packages from FXCM’s GitHub and create a loop to compile them into a DataFrame. This sounds like a lot of work, but really it’s only a few lines of code. Similarly to the sentiment data, historical candle data is stored in GNU zip files which can be called by their URL.
url = 'https://candledata.fxcorporate.com/' periodicity='m1' ##periodicity, can be m1, H1, D1 url_suffix = '.csv.gz' symbol = 'EURUSD' start_dt = datetime.date(2018,1,2)##select start date end_dt = datetime.date(2018,2,1)##select end date start_wk = start_dt.isocalendar()[1] end_wk = end_dt.isocalendar()[1] year = str(start_dt.isocalendar()[0]) data=pd.DataFrame() for i in range(start_wk, end_wk+1): url_data = url + periodicity + '/' + symbol + '/' + year + '/' + str(i) + url_suffix print(url_data) tempdata = pd.read_csv(url_data, compression='gzip', index_col='DateTime', parse_dates=True) data=pd.concat([data, tempdata]) """Combine price and sentiment data""" frames = data['AskClose'], sentiment_pvt.tz_localize(None) combineddf = pd.concat(frames, axis=1, join_axes=[sentiment_pvt.tz_localize(None).index], ignore_index=False).dropna() combineddf 
At this point you can begin your exploratory data analysis. We started by viewing the descriptive statistics of the data, creating a heatmap of the correlation matrix, and plotting a histogram of the data to view its distribution. View this articleto see our sample code and the results.
submitted by JasonRogers to AlgoTradingFXCM [link] [comments]

Dukascopy forex data

I've been trying to get data from the Dukascopy forex historicals for quite some time now, and I'd like to summarize what I've done so far, and what I still need, in order to help anyone else that also wants to use it.
First, just downloading the data is a pain. The URL that you have to get it from is
 https://datafeed.dukascopy.com/datafeed/{PAIR}/{YEAR}/{MONTH}/{DAY}/{HOUR}h_ticks.bi5 {PAIR} is the currency pair, for example "AUDUSD", "EURUSD", or "USDJPY" {YEAR} is the year, for example "2010", "2014", or "2017" {MONTH} is the month, a two digit number. For some reason, months are zero-indexed. For example, "00" corresponds to January, "05" is June, "11" is December. {DAY} is the day of the month, and as far as I can tell, it is NOT zero-indexed. Again, it is two digits wide. {HOUR} is the hour of the day. For some reason, Dukascopy stores each hour of the day separately. It is zero-indexed, so "00" to "23" 
Now that you have a *.bi5 file, you have to extract it. *.bi5 files are lzma compressed files, so find a way to extract them. I used 7z command line.
Now once you've extracted it, you'll notice it's still a binary file. The data is stored in 20 byte wide rows, with each 4 byte segment corresponding to a piece of data. Example:
[ TIME ] [ ASKP ] [ BIDP ] [ ASKV ] [ BIDV ] 0000 0800 0002 2f51 0002 2f47 4096 6666 4013 3333 TIME is a 32-bit big-endian integer representing the number of milliseconds that have passed since the beginning of this hour. ASKP is a 32-bit big-endian integer representing the asking price of the pair, multiplied by 100,000. BIDP is a 32-bit big-endian integer representing the bidding price of the pair, multiplied by 100,000. ASKV is a 32-bit big-endian floating point number representing the asking volume, divided by 1,000,000. BIDV is a 32-bit big-endian floating point number representing the bidding volume, divided by 1,000,000. 
This is how far I've gotten so far before I noticed that something is wrong. The contents of the *.bi5 file do not match the contents of the file that you can download from the official front-end, here: https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/historical/ .
For example, the January 8, 2010 *.csv file does not match in any way with the *.bi5 file of the corresponding day. Does anyone know what I am doing wrong?
EDIT: Another question is about the hours: what time zone are these files relative to? It seems that the data starts showing up from the last two hours of Sunday, going through the week, and then stopping some time before Friday ends, all relative to whatever timezone this is in.
submitted by Allurisk to algotrading [link] [comments]

Forex Sentiment Data Overview, it's Application in Algo trading, and Free Sample Data

From Commitment of Traders (COT) to the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI), to the Put/Call ratio and more, sentiment data has long been highly sought after by both professional and retail traders in the mission to get an edge in the market. Equity and futures traders can access this market data relatively easily due to the centralization of the market they are trading.

But what about Forex traders? There is no single centralized exchange for the Foreign Exchange market therefore sentiment data is difficult to obtain and can be extremely pricey for Forex traders. Furthermore, if a trader had access to such data, the sample set may be limited and not closely reflect the actual market.

In order for Forex sentiment data to be valuable, the data must be derived from a large, far reaching sample of Forex traders. FXCM boasts important Forex trading volumes and a significant trader sample and the broker’s large sample size is one of the most representative samples of the entire retail Forex market. Therefore, the data can be used to help predict movement of the rate of an instrument in the overall market.

This sentiment data shows the retail trader positioning and is derived from the buyer-to-seller ratio among retail FXCM traders. At a glance, you can see historical and current trader positioning in the market. A positive ratio indicates there are more traders that are long for every trader that is short. A negative ratio is indicative of a higher number of traders that are short for every long trader. For example, a ratio of 2.5 would mean that there are 2.5 traders that are long for every short trader and -2.5 would mean just the opposite.

When it comes to algo trading, sentiment can be used as a contrarian indicator to help predict potential moves and locate trading opportunities. When there is an extreme ratio or net volume reading, the majority of traders are either long or short a specific instrument. It is expected that the traders who are currently in these positions will eventually close out therefore bring the ratio back to neutral. Consequently, there tends to be a sharp price movement or a reversal.

When extremes like this are present in the market, a mean reversion automated strategy can be implemented to take advantage of the moves in the market that are expected to ensue. If sentiment is skewed very high or very low, price is moving away from the mean. However, over time it is expected to regress back to the mean resulting in a more neutral reading. Neutral would be considered a number close to 1.0 or -1.0. It is recommended that a confirmation indicator or two be coded into the mean reversion strategy as well.

Free one-month sample of the historical Sentiment Data can be accessed by pasting this link in your browser https://sampledata.fxcorporate.com/sentiment/{instrument}.csv.gz and changing the {instrument}: to the pair or CFD you would like to download data for. For example, for USD/JPY data download you would use this link: https://sampledata.fxcorporate.com/sentiment/USDJPY.csv.gz.
When the file downloads, it will be a GNU zip compressed file so you will need to use a decompression utility to open it. To open the file with 7zip, open the downloads folder, click on your file, and click ‘copy path’. Then open 7Zip and paste your clipboard into the address bar and click enter. Then click the ‘extract’ button. This will open a window where you can designate a destination to copy your new csv file. Click OK, and navigate back to your file explorer to see your csv file.
You can find more details about the sentiment data by checking out FXCM’s Github page: https://github.com/fxcm/MarketData/tree/masteSentiment
submitted by JasonRogers to AlgoTradingFXCM [link] [comments]

A conversation with my old man on this "drug money"- how many others have had such conversations with their family/friends and in what ways am I mistaken or missing good points/opportunities?

From: GravityChanges
Sent: Wednesday, November 27, 2013 8:27 PM
To: GravityChanges Dad
Subject: jeeze
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/11/27/bitcoin-1000-cryptocurrency/3768821/
I placed an order for 3 BTC the first days of October after getting everything verified for that service... the total was just over three hundred... Sure wishing that transaction went through now! I wish I had made some better decisions when I first got serious about bitcoin last February, but that desire is worthless now.
From: GravityChanges Dad
Sent: Wednesday, November 27, 2013 8:43 PM
To: GravityChanges
Subject: RE: jeeze
Maybe not so bad to remain skeptical. There’s an old saying that’s been historically proven in my life… if it sounds too good to be true it probably is.
Example: latest terrible computer virus is one named Ransom. The virus gets into the computer or business servers and just sits there, compresses all the files, and then one day tells you you have a certain amount of time to pay for the key to unencrypt or everything will be destroyed. They only take bitcoin for payment… because it is untraceable.
Example 2: Do you really think that the central banks, and countries, are going to allow this to become used to circumvent paying taxes and wherever and whoever is actually the recipient of all this bitcoin mania receive the profits. Not going to happen.
While maybe some short term profit could be possible, long term this is going to have some amazing intrigue and story one day on the news.
GravityChanges Dad
From: GravityChanges
Sent: Saturday, December 07, 2013 10:34 AM
To: GravityChanges Dad
Subject: RE: jeeze
http://www.coinion2.dreamhosters.com/2013/12/07/united-states-dollar-almost-doubles-in-value-in-a-single-day/
United States dollar almost doubles in value in a single day AUTHOR Jakub Szypulka
DATE December 7, 2013
The United States dollar, a real-life currency created by a group of revolutionaries after overthrowing the local authorities in North America, has almost doubled in value over the last 24 hours.
Dollars per Bitcoin, with rise visible on the right side. source The currency, that has recently gained widespread adoption, with even sovereign nations choosing to use it, soared to a value that had not been seen since the end of November. Amidst noticeable turbulence on the world’s biggest forex markets in Japan, Slovenia and Shanghai, the United States dollar reached the price it last had on November 25th, 2013. The buck, as some enthusiasts colloquially refer to it, remains highly controversial. Opponents cite fundamental flaws, allowing the money to be created in essentially unlimited amounts. The currency is often used for criminal activities, and is completely anonymous. This is not the first time the currency has seen a fast rise in value. On April 10th this year, it rose over 60% in a single day. However, the fast rises are dangerously deceiving: after each such gain, the currency slowly devalued each time, in what can be described a slow-motion crash. Experts are advising against any kind of long-term investment in the United States dollar, as the currency has been losing value for 227 years in a row.
From: GravityChanges
Sent: Friday, December 13, 2013 5:50 PM
To: GravityChanges Dad
Subject: RE: jeeze
Good reads here naysayer: http://www.abc3340.com/story/24210408/digital-currency-comes-to-the-magic-city
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/10/business/will-bitcoin-replace-paypal/
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/10/technology/bitcoin-currency-fred-wilson/index.html?sr=fb121113bitcoin11p
GravityChanges
From: GravityChanges Dad
Sent: Friday, December 13, 2013 7:19 PM
To: GravityChanges
Subject: RE: jeeze
Bitcoin is a foray for idle-minds and adventurous souls; of which I am neither. Be careful. If the US Government could take your Gold (1930’s) … move us off the gold reserve (1960’s) … and much much more… they can certainly outlaw the use of Bitcoins as a currency. If threatening the US Dollar what do you think the U.S. will do? I think I know the answer to that question.
GravityChanges Dad
From: GravityChanges
Sent: Friday, December 13, 2013 5:50 PM
To: GravityChanges Dad
Subject: RE: jeeze
I certainly agree that the government could (in theory) try to do what you described. In practice it is an international STORE of value and not a currency (just as you wouldn't buy bread with gold). It is more and more being accepted as currency though. Now if the U.S. government tried to destroy its value by similar exertion of power, it could in no way 'take' it away other than limit its use as local currency. It would remain an international store of value. What I believe is more than 50% likely is instead in the future (but too late to really benefit as they won't beat the Asians and some of Europe) the government will support legislation to help grow industries that nurture cryptocurrency. Will that currency be bitcoin? Probably, but there is a shred of possibility it will be a copycat that forks very slightly. Now if they don't do this (and this is ALREADY going on) they will greatly lead the U.S. economy to suffer.
E-commerce traffic and use (internet commercial transactions that replace 'going to a store') grew 50% from 2011 to 2012 and continue those trends (like WOW trends). The Czech republic has 1/4 of its TOTAL revenue from e-commerce. Ecommerce in China bought 37 billion from other countries and took in 376 billion (while growing at HIGH rates each year). From Russia to Brazil e-commerce is reshaping the way EVERYthing is bought and sold (which is a pretty important part of the economy, no?). The U.S. government eventually (previously) delegated and legislated unique regulations for the FTC to carry out in e-commerce to support this trend because if they didn't it would cripple the U.S. economy at a point in the near future. As a result of e-commerce many 'industries' like the travel agencies and bookstores have been completely obliterated in previous form. What you will see in the near future is a VERY similar chain of events with crypto-currency (which is NOT anonymous, but merely digital and semi-anonymous while separate from current central banks) replacing "the internet" in said equation-parallel. I believe that if the U.S. rule-makers have half a brain they will encourage, support, and legislate this sector in the near future (if they have a quarter of a brain it will be a little later, but still be) before it cripples our economy by turning e-commerce and international commerce (as well as a lucrative store of wealth) into the hands of other countries so far that there is no way of regaining a hold. If I am right then in your lifetime, just as bookstores and travel agencies have tried and failed to adapt in their previous embodiment, there will be MANY (yet not most) aspects of central banks that will cease to function or be used by customers and businesses. Simply put, e-commerce and the internet has unarguably been the most drastic change in the world since your birth. It has seeped not only into every aspect of commerce and the economy, but it will continue to gather market power. I do most of my shopping online (what generation and beyond do you think will be controlling the economy soon?). As this happens more and more businesses and industries will desire not to pay 3% or more to credit card companies and paypal. In combination to that, more and more individuals will desire to keep their "shopping" AND investment money in a currency/form that doesn't suffer from GOVERNMENT INDUCED inflation via printing money. Bitcoin has an absolute limit on the number that will ever be in existence. In order for my prophesy to not come into fruition you need MANY things to fail for bitcoin (not one country's government being ignorant).
I got interested in bitcoin early, but never wanted to invest because it always seemed like "too much money" when looking into the past prices as it was about $40 when I first wanted to get in and cents a few months previous. I very much believe that what we are STILL standing on though is the beginning of a revolutionary change as dramatic as the time between the creation of the internet and today. When I was young the internet was a thing that universities and geeks only knew of. When I was a kid the fictional Wargames and Weird Science movies and culture changes portrayed the internet as magic that no one normal could use and no one understood anything about. Then it became something with horribly designed geo-cities by the eccentric (almost a forerunner to blogs)... then came AOL and it brought ease of use, capitalism, and more casual applications like simple searches, an organized UI (user interface), chat rooms.. the internet picked up exponential steam! Soon AOL wasn't powerful enough to contain it and it EXPLODED into what it is today. It's use blew past recreation and it is the pillar of many industries and a boon to those it isn't. We are seeing the same path in terms of evolution and utilization with bitcoin (though it 'could' be said in future hindsight if bitcoin fails that the progression benefitted crypto-currency in general over bitcoin.. it WILL lead to either bitcoin or pseudo-bitcoin's prevalence and bitcoin IS the best bet). I first became interested in bitcoin during its geo-cities phase. I said the same things you are saying. Now I recognize that it is in that AOL phase I described. It is becoming more wide-spread and accessible with better user interfaces and casual applications, it is blowing up exponentially and our capitalist economy is grabbing hold (yet competing with international economies and markets of every kind). This will be a BIG change to the current view of stores of wealth. This will likely be a revolution in international and e-commerce. It is experiencing that exponential growth that the internet had at the tail end of AOL's reign and soon it will be too large and widespread for such simple and worthless ways to manipulate and utilize what bitcoin is just as people signed off AOL for the last time and really stepped into the internet (except for mom).
That is all,
GravityChanges
submitted by GravityChanges to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Singularity of the Dollar

This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 88%.
You see clear evidence of The Singularity in the compression of values that occurred directly before just about every FOREX trading pair went BERZERK, and the Dollar value relative to all of them Flash Crashed.
With so much ongoing here in the world of Global Finance Manipulation, it seems more likely to me that somebody who can push VERY big money around did a significant dump of Dollars, against the current general trend of the market to run TOWARD the dollar right now, since it's still the best looking Dogshit in the Pound.
1 Da Fed: Da Fed can buy or sell as many Dollars as it wants to, doing Currency Swaps at will.
Perhaps TPTB in charge there wanted to stop or at least slow down the appreciating value of the dollar relative to other currencies or raise the price of Oil by devaluing the dollar.
2- The Chinese: The Chinese have a vast hoard of Dollars, and their own currency of the Renminby has a "Soft peg" to the dollar, so as the dollar has been increasing in value relative to other currencies, so has Renminby.
There are some other possible candidates, the Ruskies for instance are in a pitched battle with the Western Illuminati Banking system that uses the Dollar as World Reserve Currency, but it doesn't seem likely that with all the sanctions currently in place they would have sufficient leverage in Dollars to pull a stunt like this.
Summary Source | FAQ | Theory | Feedback | Top five keywords: Dollar#1 Bank#2 run#3 Currency#4 market#5
Post found in /collapse and /Economics.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic only. Do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
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Belajar Trading Forex Dengan Price Action ~ Compression Trading Using Compression and Expansion THE PRICE ACTION COMPRESSION THEORY - YouTube 030 - Strategi Trading Compression Didalam Supply And Demand Cara Menentukan Arah Harga

Rather, price compression is about understanding that very high current expectations create higher risks because current investors demand much more from the asset than it can probably deliver in ... Now, price compression is helpful in that it shows what happens to markets at times when they become irrational. For instance, the Nasdaq bubble was a classic price compression.¹ In the long term, there was nothing unsustainable about the cash flows and valuations that would accrue to tech firms. The internet really was the world changing invention that investors believed it to be in 1999 ... Trading Compression – compression is a very slow price movement that indicates weakness on buying and selling orders. By this type of movement, the price collects all pending orders on its way up or down and leaves no unfilled orders behind it. Compression is usually defined by small and messy candles that move up or down in a very tight range. Our Compression Triangles are enjoyed by our subscribers as an interesting add-on to their trading strategy or trading style. Many times, a bottom will be marked with a Bullish Compression Triangle …or a Top will be called with a Bearish Compression Triangle. Price: FREE with purchase of any of our Bar Types (An $895.00 value) [ September 5, 2020 ] The COVID Price Compression In Technology Stock News [ September 5, 2020 ] Sterling (GBP) Remains Under Pressure as EU/UK Trade Talks Stall Forex News [ September 5, 2020 ] Blockchain’s Back, But Not All Blockchain ETFs Are Created Equal By Investing.com Stock News Compression into Supply. As price rises creating higher highs and higher lows, each time it swings back down after a rally its absorbs demand. There is a reason why price does this. These demand zones are standing the way of a nice big short so the buy orders at these levels need to be absorbed before price can fall freely through this area. Pro money moves price in this fashion to clear the ... Trading price compression formations is something every forex trader needs to know. Remember to adapt in case you find yourself inside price compression. Combine this with support and resistance and your own personal touch to trade against a compression formation for fast movements.

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Belajar Trading Forex Dengan Price Action ~ Compression

The expansion and compression tools presented here to provide daytraders with another way to see and predict price movements. Learn more about our trading charts, the thought process behind them ... Cara Belajar Trading Forex Dengan Price Action ~ Apa Itu Supply and Demand #Part2 - Duration: 26 ... TRADING FOREX : Supply and Demand , Compression - Duration: 14:14. Awesome Fx 468 views. 14:14 ... ~ Compression Buy -Semua Supply Clear Dengan First Time Back (FTB) -Sudut Antara Shadow Landai -Tidak Ada Gap Antara Zone Supply -News High Impact Semasa Price Hampir Sampai Di Zone Demand -P.O ... The Pump & Dump Theory of the Institutions. The art of eating all the pending orders before moving the price faster. To learn more about the same, Join us in...

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